Trade the
Disagreement.
Prediction markets compress reality into one clean number.
Variance makes the hidden signals exploitable.
One Price,
Many Beliefs
Behind every market price live incompatible beliefs: quant models, narratives, time horizons, reflex traders, slow analysts.
The market averages them into something calm and presentable. Variance doesn't vanish — it hides. And hidden signals have a habit of resurfacing at inconvenient times.
"Most markets are efficient at pricing consensus.
They are terrible at pricing disagreement."
All beliefs compressed into one number. Disagreement invisible.
The 27% gap between model and crowd = tradeable variance.
Markets Tracked
2,847
+124Avg. Belief Spread
14.2%
+2.1%Detected Regime Shifts
89
+12Hidden Variance
$8.4M
+$1.2MBefore Resolution,
Something Interesting
Variance doesn't replace prediction markets. It sits above them. Outcomes still resolve. Truth eventually arrives. But before that moment, we make visible what was previously flattened away.
Polymorphic Probabilities
There is no single probability before resolution. We preserve multiple surfaces: short-term vs long-term, model-driven vs crowd-driven, narrative vs data-weighted.
Each surface prices the same outcome differently.
Trade the Disagreement
You're no longer restricted to betting on what will happen. Position around where beliefs diverge and where certainty is overstated.
Confidence gaps become tradeable assets.
Structured Uncertainty
Prices remain public. Outcomes remain verifiable. Settlement stays on-chain. What changes is that doubt becomes visible instead of ignored.
How wrong is the market allowed to be?
Trade Disagreement
Single Probability
Outcomes resolve • Settlement is objective • Truth arrives
Visible
Signals
Confidence Gaps
When short-term traders see 72% and long-term holders see 58%, that 14% gap is your edge.
Belief Fragmentation
Quant models vs crowd sentiment. Data-weighted vs narrative-driven. Each prices differently.
Early Regime Shifts
Spot when probability surfaces start diverging before the consensus price reacts.
Overstated Certainty
Markets at 95%+ often hide fragile agreement. We make that fragility visible and tradeable.
In a world obsessed with being right
We ask a more
interesting question
"How wrong is the market allowed to be — and where?"
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